Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Florida. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.
Previously: Alabama | Arkansas| Auburn
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It wasn’t the way Billy Napier drew it up.
Losing 5 in a row to end the season was anything but a plan coming together. Instead, it was a reminder that Florida is a ways off from being relevant in the SEC. Contrary to what Napier said at SEC Media Days, the Gators are not on schedule. An 11-14 start that resulted in an “overhauled” nutrition program after Year 2 certainly didn’t feel like it was part of Napier’s original vision, though he made the surprising decision to continue calling plays instead of focusing on being the program’s CEO.
To make matters worse, the schedule appears to be historically daunting. It’s not just that the final 5 games on the 2024 slate are against teams that finished in the top 12 of the AP Poll. It’s that 8 of the 12 matchups are against teams that are ranked in the preseason AP Poll.
Yeah, that’s not the way Napier drew it up, either.
It’s certainly not the way that AD Scott Stricklin drew it up when he put this 2024 schedule together. Originally, UCF was in the AAC, not the Big 12. And sure, the tour of Florida was a cool concept, but it was also conceived before Florida State returned to national prominence. It’s hard to imagine Stricklin being so adamant about beefing up the nonconference schedule if he had known that the Noles would reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the ACC.
None of that matters, though. What matters is that a Florida team that lost 23 of its past 33 games vs. Power 5 competition gets back on track. That’s what it’ll take for Napier to put job security questions on the back burner.
For now, though, he sits on a burning seat that might not have an escape plan.
Let’s dig into it with Florida’s 2024 Crystal Ball:
The Graham Mertz-DJ Lagway conversations aren’t going anywhere
Mertz deserves a ton of credit for stepping in as the underwhelming transfer portal addition and exceeding expectations last season. It’s why he’s one of the faces of the program entering 2024. Napier proved plenty of people wrong (myself included) by showing faith in Mertz, who was No. 18 in FBS in quarterback rating. Another year in the system should bode well for the veteran signal-caller.
But Lagway is about to make things interesting.
The Gatorade National Player of the Year already has SEC size (6-3, 239 pounds) as a true freshman, and the mental makeup appears to be perfectly suited to eventually become an elite college quarterback. So if Mertz continues to play well, does that mean Lagway’s reps will be limited? One would think that it won’t be a true 2-quarterback system, but that Napier will find ways to get Lagway some meaningful snaps.
Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!
Lagway is an integral piece of Florida’s future. The backloaded schedule would suggest that barring a Mertz injury, Lagway won’t have a natural in-season succession plan. If Napier’s plan works, that won’t be necessary. Mertz will be the unquestioned QB1 and Lagway will flash his brilliance.
The more intriguing question is what happens if Mertz struggles in consecutive weeks? Will Napier, who hasn’t been one to bench a quarterback as a head coach, turn to Lagway for performance-based reasons? That remains to be seen.
What’s clear is that as long as he’s healthy, Lagway will be at the forefront of all Florida conversations in 2024.
Can this defense finally have a pulse?
The most disappointing unit in college football in the 2020s is the Florida defense. Period. For the 4th consecutive year, the Gators failed to produce a top-70 scoring defense. Mind you, the Gators never finished outside of the top 70 in scoring defense from 2000-19. Only once in those 20 years did Florida fail to produce a top-50 scoring defense, and it came in the 2017 season when the Gators were steeped in credit card fraud and alleged shark-mounting controversies.
So that begs the question — can this group finally stop the bleeding?
Napier pivoted from giving 20-something Austin Armstrong full control of the defense, and he added co-defensive coordinator Ron Roberts after he got fired from Power 5 jobs at the end of each of the past 2 seasons (2022 at Baylor, 2023 at Auburn). Unfortunately for those 2, Florida’s only All-SEC defensive player of the past 3 years, Princely Umanmielen, left for Ole Miss.
The good news is that there’s promise up front with Cam Jackson and Shemar James returning. Multi-year starter Jason Marshall Jr. should give the Gators one of the conference’s better outside corners, so one would think that having a reliable veteran at every level should bode well. Napier went defense-heavy in the portal, as well. Penn transfer Joey Slackman has All-SEC upside at defensive tackle, and if South Carolina transfer Grayson Howard can build off a solid fall camp, it’s not far-fetched to think this is the most talented Florida defense since 2020.
Of course, depth will continue to be the question. Florida’s struggles once the calendar flipped to November are synonymous with the defensive depth woes. Under Napier, the Gators are 2-7 in post-October games with an average of 31.6 points allowed. That has to change, especially with 5 November games against teams who had top-20 offenses in 2023.
Answers are needed. That, perhaps even more than the quarterback handling, will determine Napier’s future.
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Miami (W)
I’m not buying the Miami hype. In a scorching hot game with transfers galore, tensions rise for the Canes in a hostile atmosphere. Instead of Florida looking like a doormat defensively, the Armstrong-Roberts combination frustrates new Canes QB Cam Ward. In a game played at a sluggish pace because of all the cramping, Florida finds the offensive answers in the second half. Tre Wilson scores twice, including once on an end-around to spark the depleted Florida ground game. Napier wins a pivotal Week 1 showdown.
Week 2: vs. Samford (W)
Never sleep on Samford. Florida knows that. Something tells me this will feel a touch different than the last time Chris Hatcher’s squad came into The Swamp and put up 52 points.
Week 3: vs. Texas A&M (W)
With Florida’s backfield finally healthy, the Gators opt for a ground-heavy approach instead of letting A&M’s defensive line pin its ears back against Mertz. Montrell Johnson Jr. puts together a 150-yard game against an A&M defense that’s still searching for its Year 1 identity under Mike Elko. The Aggies lose their 12th consecutive true road game while Florida quiets some of the preseason doubters with a statement win.
Week 4: at Mississippi State (W)
In the Dan Mullen bowl, Mertz and his former Wisconsin target Chimere Dike are the difference. They are unstoppable on the road in what initially starts as a back-and-forth shootout. Mississippi State struggles to protect Blake Shapen as it tries to mount a comeback, forcing him into a Marshall interception to close it out. Florida’s 4-0 start going into the bye week becomes one of the stories of the young season.
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. UCF (W)
KJ Jefferson played a major role in Florida’s 2023-24 script by leading Arkansas to a stunning overtime upset in The Swamp. Now at UCF in Gus Malzahn’s offense, could we see Jefferson pull that off again? It’s possible, but coming off the bye, Florida’s offensive line will be the star of the show. Against a UCF defense that finished in the bottom 10 in FBS against the run, Johnson and Co. run away with it in the second half. Just for a little exclamation point, Lagway enters the game in the middle of the 4th quarter and leads a touchdown drive. Vibes couldn’t be better in Gainesville after a 5-0 start.
Week 7: at Tennessee (L)
For the first time, Florida’s defense runs into a buzzsaw. The 5-0 start for the Gators becomes a distant memory against a versatile, explosive Tennessee offense. Dylan Sampson punches Florida in the mouth with a pair of first-half scores, and Nico Iamaleava delivers a “worth the hype” performance that has Tennessee fans buzzing. The Vols shake off a pair of early-season losses and avenge last year’s loss in The Swamp.
Week 8: vs. Kentucky (L)
Mark Stoops owns Florida. Period. He won 4 of the past 6 matchups, including each of the past 3 contests. In those 4 Kentucky wins, Florida failed to hit 17 points. A total yardage advantage won’t be the difference in this one — that’s a Dan Mullen 2021 reference for y’all — so what will? Special teams. Barion Brown takes a kick back to the house and UK blocks a Florida punt to get a short field that Brock Vandagriff punches in for 6. Florida’s continued special teams miscues prove costly in a deflating 21-17 loss heading into the bye.
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: vs. Georgia in Jacksonville (L)
Can we call this a Trevor Etienne revenge game? Eh, maybe not. But in a loud statement, Etienne gets 23 touches as the backbone of the Georgia attack. After one of his touchdowns, Etienne delivers a Gator chomp that earns him a 15-yard penalty, and we get a chippy 4th quarter in Jacksonville. After that promising start up front, Florida struggles to protect Mertz. He plays behind schedule far too often and Florida’s 1-dimensional attack is ineffective against CJ Allen and the Georgia defense. For the 4th consecutive year, the Dawgs cruise in Jacksonville.
Week 11: at Texas (L)
With Quinn Ewers out with an injury he suffered against Vanderbilt, Arch Manning gets his first career start. Unlike Uncle Peyton Manning, Arch doesn’t struggle to beat Florida. Instead, Texas’ defense helps him out by forcing a pair of early turnovers to give Manning and the Longhorns a couple of short fields that turn into easy touchdown drives. Manning doesn’t set the world on fire, but he plays a clean game in his starting debut to fuel a 28-14 Texas win.
Week 12: vs. LSU (W)
Just when we think the Gators are in total free-fall after losing 4 in a row to spoil a 5-0 start, they do the unthinkable — they finally end the LSU losing streak. For the first time since 2018, Florida is on the right end of a thriller against the Tigers. Garrett Nussmeier struggles with his decision-making on the road while the Gators play like a team that’s happy to be home for the first time in a month. The Gators’ passing attack lights up the LSU secondary in a game that Napier desperately needs to clinch bowl eligibility and avoid another 5-game losing streak.
Week 13: vs. Ole Miss (L)
Just when Florida thinks it’s out of the woods, Lane Kiffin comes into the Sunshine State and puts on an offensive clinic. Coming off the Ole Miss bye week, Jaxson Dart returns from injury and looks like the best version of himself. Florida, on the other hand, looks like a group that’s the worst version of itself on the defensive side of the ball. The grind of the Gators’ November slate rears its ugly head in what turns out to be a 42-24 Ole Miss victory. Napier’s future again becomes priority No. 1.
Week 14: at Florida State (L)
For all the talk about FSU’s turnover heading into the season, that’s a distant memory by the time Mike Norvell’s squad takes the field in Week 14. With an ACC Championship bid already locked in, FSU plays like a team that doesn’t want to leave its Playoff fate in the hands of the selection committee. Florida plays like a team that wants to keep its coach around another season, but the midweek firing of Stricklin heading into the regular-season finale spells trouble for Napier. Florida erases a 3-touchdown deficit, but much like the 2022 matchup in Tallahassee, a gutty late comeback attempt comes up short.
2024 Projection: 6-6 (3-5), 12th in SEC
12-team Playoff berth? No
To be clear, not all 6-6 seasons are created equally. Florida’s 6-6 could include wins against 2 or 3 ranked foes at the time of the matchup. But it could also include the unfortunate reality that in a 16-team, division-less SEC, the gap between Florida and the conference’s elite is still too wide. At least, it’s too wide for Florida to continue to invest in Napier.
Napier’s roller-coaster season ends with him getting fired. It’s a subject that’s loaded with discourse, especially with Florida going through an administrative transition following the surprising resignation of UF president Ben Sasse. The pro-Napier crowd is frustrated to see the Gators watch their 4th consecutive head coach fail to earn a 5th season in Gainesville.
The attention also shifts to Lagway, who flashed moments of immense promise but was ultimately unable to make his first career start. His pending transfer portal decision overshadows a bowl berth in which Florida’s roster resembles the 2021 LSU team that had 39 scholarship players in the Texas Bowl. December is a messy month for the Gators, to say the least.
A season that began with such promise ends in all-too-familiar territory. That is, ripping up the plan and starting over.
